Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 25 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla No için 67.2% fiyatlıyor.

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?

Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: In 2023, it was said:

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25 Eki 2026 20:28 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4

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Hayır 67.2%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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47 dakika önce güncellendi

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19 Şub 25 09:08 UTC1 Oca 28 04:59 UTC

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In 2023, it was said:

Currently, the technology for 4-bit training does not exists, but research looks promising and I expect the first high performance FP4 Large Language Model (LLM) with competitive predictive performance to be trained in 1-2 years time.
(see: https://timdettmers.com/2023/01/16/which-gpu-for-deep-learning/)
Currently, the technology for 4-bit training does exists, but research doesn't look promising and I expect a high performance FP4 Large Language Model (LLM) with competitive predictive performance to maybe never be trained.
Will it be trained, before 2028?
granted, the model must be opensource, or have public information about its training, for it to be considered, as we would otherwise not know.