Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
25 Eki 2026 18:26 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiEvet 64.6%
Tahminciler
4
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis1 Oca 26 06:30 UTC31 Ara 29 15:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered?
Manifold MarketsWill China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill hypersonic missile(s) sink a US aircraft carrier by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX be nationalized by EoY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolution Criteria
- China currently operates three active aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian.
- This market resolves YES if China officially commissions a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before January 1, 2030.
- "Commissioned" means the carrier is formally accepted into service by the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in an official ceremony.
- Resolution will be verified through official Chinese government announcements, state media (Xinhua, CCTV), or credible international defense reporting (Pentagon reports, USNI, Jane's Defense Weekly).
- Note: The Type 004 will be much larger and also likely the first Chinese surface warship to feature nuclear marine propulsion, so it would not count as a "conventional" carrier for this market.
