Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?
JeopolitikOne-OffSpaceChina3yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 64.6%
Tahminciler
4
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis1 Oca 26 06:30 UTC31 Ara 29 15:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
Manifold MarketsThe USA loses an aircraft carrier anytime til EOY 2028
Manifold MarketsVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
PolymarketWill any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by which date?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution Criteria
- China currently operates three active aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian.
- This market resolves YES if China officially commissions a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before January 1, 2030.
- "Commissioned" means the carrier is formally accepted into service by the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in an official ceremony.
- Resolution will be verified through official Chinese government announcements, state media (Xinhua, CCTV), or credible international defense reporting (Pentagon reports, USNI, Jane's Defense Weekly).
- Note: The Type 004 will be much larger and also likely the first Chinese surface warship to feature nuclear marine propulsion, so it would not count as a "conventional" carrier for this market.
Açık piyasalar
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺34,6 Mn
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-10.0pt72%
- September 18-11.0pt65%
- September 11-15.0pt54%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.6%
- September 30-4.0pt12.2%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,7 Mn
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 65% fiyatlıyor.
- Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2029.
- Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution Criteria