Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?
JeopolitikOne-OffRusya / Ukrayna2ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 56.9%
Tahminciler
13
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
23 dakika önce güncellendi
31 Tem 26 10:44 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 Moscow Time, a ballistic missile launched from Ukraine hits any target within territory currently controlled by Russia, at the distance greater than 500km from territory currently controlled by Ukraine.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Key Definitions and Rules:
- Ballistic Missile: The weapon must be classified as a ballistic missile (such as Fire Point's FP-9, or any Sapsan/Hrim-2 variant confirmed to have a range exceeding 500 km).
- Cruise missiles (e.g., Neptunes, Flamingos), rocket-drones (e.g., Palianytsia), and standard kamikaze drones do not qualify.