Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?
JeopolitikCustomYZTeknoloji1y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 83.1%
Tahminciler
21
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis4 Haz 23 12:37 UTC1 Ara 27 04:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Before the end of 2027, will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets (as appearing in the Manifold Market search for that phrase) be above 50%, at the same time, for at least a week?
- This does not include derivative markets such as "Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 20% in 2023?"
- Update 2025-17-01 (PST): - Conditional markets (e.g., "if there is a war between AI and humans with at least x billion human deaths, will AI wipe out humanity") do not count towards the resolution criteria.
- (AI summary of creator comment)
- *Please note that the "AI summary of creator comment" is the exact opposite of my comment.
- The resolution criteria may soon be edited, but not like that.
