Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 30 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla No için 70.1% fiyatlıyor.

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 8 Nisan 2033.

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Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

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28 May 26 23:55 UTC8 Nis 33 22:59 UTC

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"Humans begin using speech to pass on what they've learned within a lifetime and then immediately become superintelligent (compared to other animals)" and "AI begins using continual learning to pass on what they've learned in-context within RL and deployment and then immediately becomes superintelligent" don't analogize perfectly, but it's close.

Will ASI happen less than 365 days after a frontier-ish AI company deploys better-than-nothing continual learning?
N/A if ASI happens first
Update 2026-05-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Continual learning is defined as models being able to learn new things at the weights level without being retrained from scratch.
Key distinguishing features:
Current training loops (retraining from scratch or from base model) do not qualify

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Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

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