Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 77.8%
Tahminciler
27
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis23 Ağu 25 17:31 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Harris, Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Texas in 2026?
ForecastExKurallar
The breakthrough needs to make LLMs better at learning from context at test time.
- Some examples of results that could demonstrate this breakthrough would be a model that shows less degradation than contemporaries on long-context or one that can more effectively learn from mistakes during agentic tasks.
- The breakthrough needs to be major and conceptual, it can't be something as simple as models getting better at in-context learning through more scaling.
- In order to count this breakthrough must apply to general LLMs, not just using continual learning to solve a narrow problem or class of problems
- A paper claiming to have a really good result isn't enough (like the Titans paper).
- The breakthrough must be widely accepted as legitimate and there should be publicly accessible models that use it
