Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?
RegülasyonYZWeeklyChinaTeknoloji3ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 81.9%
Tahminciler
6
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis4 May 26 20:22 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsWill an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
PolymarketWill the US restrict access to Kimi in 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any China-domestic AI accelerator (Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, Biren, Moore Threads, Iluvatar, etc.) is reported to achieve ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 effective performance on a publicly disclosed benchmark.
- Acceptable benchmarks for resolution:
- MLPerf (mlperf.org) — official submitted results
- LLM training/inference benchmarks published by Epoch AI, CSET, or peer-reviewed academic papers (arXiv, conference proceedings)
- Vendor-published technical specifications + neutral third-party verification (e.g., research lab reproducing the result)
- "Effective performance" means application-level throughput on standardized AI workloads (e.g., GPT-class training tokens/sec, Llama-class inference tokens/sec, ResNet-class images/sec), not just raw FLOP/s peak.
Açık piyasalar
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺702 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺13,8 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-12.0pt41%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-15.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-19.0pt29%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 82% fiyatlıyor.
- Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any China-domestic AI accelerator (Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, Biren, Moore Threads, Iluvatar, etc.) is reported to achieve ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 effective performance on a publicly disclosed benchmark.