Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 78.1%
Tahminciler
54
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
5 dakika önce güncellendi
27 Oca 26 22:23 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
'Breakthrough' Frontier Math Open Problem solved before 2028
Manifold MarketsWhich company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?
Manifold MarketsWhich High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?
Manifold MarketsUS test scores in Math in 2026?
KalshiWill any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
PolymarketAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved.
- The benchmark classifies problems into four difficulty levels, with Breakthrough being the highest.
- Note that to avoid contamination solved problems will be removed from the benchmark.
- So a solution only counts for this market if an AI solves the problem before any human solution is found.
- Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of problems: Includes any future breakthrough-level problems added to the benchmark, not just those currently listed.
- AI vs human collaboration: The creator will defer to Epoch AI's determination of whether AI gets credit for a solution, but will use their own judgment if Epoch AI is unclear.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-5.0pt61.6%
- 202730.3%
- 2026-4.5pt8.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺6 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.4pt59.2%
- ChatGPT+1.9pt24.3%
- Grok-0.9pt6.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺516,8 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,-3.5pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+8.0pt79%
- claude-opus-5-max+2.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-4.0pt94%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETGemini 4.0 released by which date?
- November 30-3.0pt87%
- October 31-5.0pt72%
- September 30-16.5pt12%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Tencent market share this week
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 78% fiyatlıyor.
- Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2027.
- Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved.