Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 52.9%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis4 Mar 26 18:50 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI achieve AGI?
KalshiWhen will any company achieve AGI?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketKurallar
Will at least one AI system publicly demonstrated before January 1, 2030 meet the criteria for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?
- RESOLUTION CRITERIA
- This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, a single AI system is publicly demonstrated that satisfies ALL of the following conditions:
- Performs at or above human expert level on a broad range of cognitively demanding tasks spanning at least 5 distinct domains (e.g. mathematics, coding, science, writing, reasoning, medicine).
- Can learn and adapt to entirely new tasks with minimal instruction (few-shot or zero-shot), without task-specific retraining.
- Can autonomously plan and execute long-horizon tasks (multi-day, multi-step agentic work) that generate measurable real-world value.
Açık piyasalar
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺702 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺13,8 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-12.0pt41%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-15.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-19.0pt29%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 53% fiyatlıyor.
- Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2029.
- Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Will at least one AI system publicly demonstrated before January 1, 2030 meet the criteria for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?