Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Something from Eliezer's list of lethalities occurs. 83%4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
19
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Tem 24 14:29 UTC2 Oca 30 04:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Inverse of https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1?r=S3JhbnR6.
- Will not resolve.
- Primarily for users to explore particular lethalities.
- Please add responses.
- "poor" = human extinction or mass human suffering
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Something from Eliezer's list of lethalities occurs. için 83% fiyatlıyor.
- If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2030.
- If Artificial General Intelligence has a poor outcome, what will be the reason? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Inverse of https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1?r=S3JhbnR6.