Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 69.1%
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16
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis28 Oca 23 17:33 UTC31 Ara 42 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
US Civil War by 1st Jan 2028
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketCivil War in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves positively if more than 30,000 people die in a US civil war acc. to credible sources (Metaculus definition) before 1st Jan 2043.
- At least 25,000 of these people should be killed by other US residents as opposed to being killed by people from another nation.
- Deaths by drones or other AI-controlled weapons count if and only if they were intentionally caused by US residents.
- Edit 3rd Feb 2023: Something will count as a civil war if all of the following are true:
- there is military action taken by some part of the country against some other part of the country.
- This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian.
Açık piyasalar
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺34,6 Mn
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-10.0pt72%
- September 18-11.0pt65%
- September 11-15.0pt54%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.6%
- September 30-4.0pt12.2%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,7 Mn
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 69% fiyatlıyor.
- Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2042.
- Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves positively if more than 30,000 people die in a US civil war acc. to credible sources (Metaculus definition) before 1st Jan 2043.