Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 93.4%
Tahminciler
31
Soru türü
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
57 dakika önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli13 Oca 26 13:35 UTC1 Oca 27 23:59 UTC
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FutuurKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a civil war occurs in Iran by December 31, 2026.
- Civil war is defined as sustained armed conflict between the Iranian government and organized opposition forces, or between competing factions for control of the state, resulting in significant casualties and territorial control disputes.
- The conflict must involve organized military or paramilitary units engaging in coordinated combat operations across multiple regions of Iran.
- Resolution will be determined by reports from major international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) and human rights monitoring organizations (Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International).
- A single incident or localized uprising does not constitute civil war; the conflict must demonstrate characteristics of prolonged, multi-front warfare.