Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 66.3%
Tahminciler
27
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
7 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis14 Eki 26 01:53 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S / ERA5 dataset) reports in its annual global climate release that the global surface air temperature for calendar year 2027 was the highest on record (exceeding all prior calendar years).
- If the C3S dataset is unavailable, the market will resolve according to official annual global surface temperature data from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISTEMP) or the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
- If 2027 ranks second or lower, or ties for the highest temperature on record without exceeding previous years, the market resolves to NO.
- Global average surface temperatures are tracked by several primary climate monitoring bodies, including Copernicus (C3S/ECMWF), NASA (GISTEMP), NOAA (NCEI), Berkeley Earth, the UK Met Office, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
- Annual global temperatures are driven by long-term anthropogenic warming trends combined with interannual ocean-atmosphere variability, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
