Who will release the first model to be credibly accused of being responsible for at least 100 deaths?
TeknolojiOne-OffManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
14 Eki 2026 05:32 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiPalantir 42.4%18 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
29
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmisTrendler
Kurallar
Credible accusations must be made or linked to in the comments to count for resolution.
- Once a credible accusation is posted, the question will resolve a month later, to give time for other accusations to surface.
- Deaths caused through any causal mechanism count, as long as they aren't too butterfly-effect-y.
- They must be specific deaths traced to the model.
- Feel free to ask about specific scenarios and I'll answer whether they count.
- Rulings: 10-3-2023: If there are multiple listed organizations responsible for training the model (e.g. one organization did pretraining and the other did fine-tuning), it resolves to the organization that spent the most compute directly on training (for current models, this only counts the compute costs of the forward and backward passes).
