Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiFuturama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues 34.8%5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
10
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis30 Ara 25 16:25 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?
Manifold MarketsA Scott Aaronson style device predicting human actions and internal monologue demonstrated by the end of 2050.
Manifold MarketsWhat will Mike Sicilia say during Oracle AI World keynote?
KalshiWhat will Clay Magouyrk say during his Oracle AI World keynote?
KalshiKurallar
Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.
- Other versions of this question use far future dates; this one instead attempts to forecast the Metaculus opinion as of the end of 2027.
- This question will resolve PROB in proportion to the Metaculus forecast at that time.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/20683)AI-Fizzle.
- In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
- AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
