Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

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22 Haz 2026 03:43 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-2

Güncel topluluk tahmini

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact 10%

5 seçenek arasında lider

Tahminciler

Soru türü

multiple choice

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

23 gün önce guncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

30 Oca 24 2:5331 Ara 50 22:59

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Yalnızca sanal bakiye, gerçek para yokYatırım tavsiyesi değildir

Seçilen sonuç

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact10%

Tutar (USDT)

Kurallar

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.

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Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

SporOne-OffChess124y

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibre

Veri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler

22 Haz 2026 03:43 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-2

Güncel topluluk tahmini

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact 10%

5 seçenek arasında lider

Tahminciler

Soru türü

multiple choice

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

23 gün önce guncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

30 Oca 24 2:5331 Ara 50 22:59

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Yalnızca sanal bakiye, gerçek para yokYatırım tavsiyesi değildir

Seçilen sonuç

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact10%

Tutar (USDT)

Kurallar

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.

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BitcoinBTC$65,356.35+2.11%

EthereumETH$1,928.40+2.98%

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XRPXRP$1.13+2.34%

BNBBNB$581.33+0.23%

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Kurallar

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.