Güncel topluluk tahmini
Any model announced before 2034 90.3%51 seçenek arasında lider
Any model announced before 2034 90.3%Tahminciler
180
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis1 Oca 25 23:47 UTC1 Oca 01 07:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?
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Manifold MarketsKurallar
Which of these models will beat me at chess once released? Resolves YES if they win, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- I'm rated about 1900 FIDE.
- When each of these models are released, I'll play a game of chess with them.
- On each move, I'll provide them with the game state in PGN and FEN notation.
- If the models make three illegal moves, they lose.
- Responses like Nbd2 vs. Nd2 will not count towards this.
