Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
2030 81.9%7 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
41
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+4.6 pts
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis11 Ağu 24 16:42 UTC1 Şub 31 07:59 UTC
Trendler
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.
- Resolves YES if I lose, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- On which years will I win?
- Some more details: I’m rated around 1900 FIDE, 2100 USCF.
- The game will be played at a rapid time control.
- I’ll select the LLM from the top 3 of the leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), or another benchmark if I believe it to be a better measure of general reasoning capabilities.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 2030 için 82% fiyatlıyor.
- When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Şubat 2031.
- When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.