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Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
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Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
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The LLM must not be trained to play adversarially.
- I am going with an academic definition of LLM (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_language_model)
- All meaningful computation must be done on the network, thus Monte Carlo Search is disallow, but recurrent nets are allowed
- Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An LLM that acts as an agent that uses tools or writes its own algorithm for depth search will not count towards a YES resolution.
