Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiPerplexity 37.6%5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Kas 25 14:52 UTC31 Ara 35 14:48 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Which gaming companies will shut down by end 2030?
Manifold MarketsOut of these AI researchers, who is the smartest?
Manifold MarketsWhat are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketAnthropic’s valuation end of October 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to whichever company among OpenAI, Anthropic, Perplexity, or xAI ceases operations first due to bankruptcy, insolvency, or permanent shutdown.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the company, SEC filings, or major news reports from established financial media outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times).
- If multiple companies shut down simultaneously, the market resolves to the one that filed for bankruptcy or made the shutdown announcement first.
- OpenAI closed a $40 billion Series F funding round at a $300 billion valuation in April 2025, and achieved a $500B valuation milestone in October 2025.
- Anthropic raised $13 billion in Series F funding as of September 2025. xAI closed a $10 billion debt and equity fundraise in July 2025.
Açık piyasalar
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.9pt94%
- Yes-1.9pt6%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺28,6 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-8.5pt77%
- December 15,-22.5pt60%
- November 30,-27.0pt51%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺104,7 Mn
KALSHIWho will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Paramount+14.0pt93.1%
- None before July 2027-13.0pt5%
- Netflix2%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺211,6 Mn
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+5.0pt28.2%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+4.0pt23.6%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-2.0pt15.4%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt73%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-4.0pt41%
- Before May 1, 2027-7.0pt37%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
- New Mexico vs Oklahoma
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Georgia vs Arkansas
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Florida State vs Alabama
- LSU vs Ole Miss
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Which of these AI companies will shut down first? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 19 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Perplexity için 38% fiyatlıyor.
- Which of these AI companies will shut down first? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Which of these AI companies will shut down first? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2035.
- Which of these AI companies will shut down first? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution Criteria