Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiBefore 2027-06-01 92.3%+1.4pt38 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
73
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+1.4 pts
Piyasa verileri
8 dakika önce güncellendi
15 Mar 24 14:03 UTC1 Oca 28 22:59 UTC
Trendler
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
KalshiWhen will Starship launch from Florida for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessKurallar
The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit.
- It could be a Starlink satellite, a commercial satellite from another company, or a scientific satellite even if it is launched pro bono.
- Mass simulator or meme payloads like Elon's car do not count.
- The payload should be deployed into the desired initial orbit (or an orbit close enough that it could be corrected by the satellite itself).
- The market will resolve even if the satellite itself malfunctions after the deployment.
- I do not bet on my own questions.
Sık sorulan sorular
- When will Starship first launch with useful payload? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Before 2027-06-01 için 92% fiyatlıyor.
- When will Starship first launch with useful payload? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will Starship first launch with useful payload? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2028.
- When will Starship first launch with useful payload? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit.