Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiBefore 2050 60%11 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
12
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
31 dakika önce güncellendi
20 Eyl 25 16:40 UTC31 Ara 28 17:31 UTC
Trendler
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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PolymarketKurallar
When I refer to a "multiple-choice market", I mean one where the probability of all choices always add up to 100%.
- This also includes at least some forms of date and numeric markets.
- Right now, all mana invested in this type of market remains tied up until the winning choice has been selected.
- It would be far more optimal for prediction accuracy and mana management if guaranteed-wrong options could be resolved NO as they become guaranteed-wrong.
- The appropriate date ranges in this market will resolve YES at the time that a change implementing this gets deployed on the site.
- I may bet YES in this market in order to incentivize myself to accomplish this, but I will not bet NO (beyond selling YES shares).
