Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiJapan 24%16 seçenek arasında lider
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multiple choice
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18 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Ara 23 03:24 UTC1 Oca 31 04:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiKurallar
Both local development of a nuke and the receipt of a nuke by other means will resolve Yes.
- A nuke that legally belongs to another country but is consensually stored and ready to use in the territory or on weapons platforms belonging to a new country will resolve Yes, as will any other new or revealed nuke-sharing.
- So if the Cuban Missile Crisis happened tomorrow, Cuba would resolve Yes.
- The same for the First Taiwan Straight Crisis.
- Likewise, Canada being revealed to secretly keep US-owned nukes in their territory would resolve Yes even though they were previously denied.
- Past shared weapons do not count.
Açık piyasalar
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺34,6 Mn
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-10.0pt72%
- September 18-11.0pt65%
- September 11-15.0pt54%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.6%
- September 30-4.0pt12.2%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,7 Mn
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Japan için 24% fiyatlıyor.
- What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2031.
- What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Both local development of a nuke and the receipt of a nuke by other means will resolve Yes.