Güncel topluluk tahmini
80% to 90% 24.7%7 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
9 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis10 Haz 26 11:01 UTC31 Ara 30 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?
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KalshiHow high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?
KalshiKurallar
Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).
- If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
- Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
- Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
- How phone and assistant usage counts
- The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.
Açık piyasalar
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+12.0pt63.7%
- No change-11.0pt34.3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺562,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺60,6 Mn
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
- Hike 25bps+15.0pt63.5%
- Fed maintains rate-14.0pt32.7%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
+13 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺29,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,1 Mn
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.1pt98%
- 1 (25 bps)+0.1pt1%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt1%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
FORECASTEXWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
- Yes69%
- No31%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,9 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,9 Mn
POLYMARKETFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt69.3%
- No change27.7%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt2%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- What will Fed Gov Barr say during his housing affordability address?
- Fed decision in October?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate decision in October 2026
- Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Sık sorulan sorular
- What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 23 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 80% to 90% için 24.7% fiyatlıyor.
- What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2030.
- What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).