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  3. What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?
Manifold Markets

What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?

FedWeeklyYZTeknoloji4y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKYC yok
Güncel topluluk tahmini
Manifold Markets
Less than 40% 2.1%
7 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler

4

Soru türü

multiple choice

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

8 dakika önce guncellendi

10 Haz 26 11:0131 Ara 30 23:59

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Seçilen sonuç

Less than 40%2%

Kurallar

Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).

Manifold Markets
  • If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
  • Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
  • How phone and assistant usage counts
  • The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.

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Kurallar

Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).

Manifold Markets
  • If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
  • Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
  • How phone and assistant usage counts
  • The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.