JavaScript devre dışı. Temel gezinme ve editoryal sayfalar kullanılabilir, ancak canlı piyasa bileşenleri, grafikler, arama ve kişiselleştirme özellikleri sınırlı olabilir.

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

RegülasyonOne-Off3ay

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibre

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Evet 90.4%

Tahminciler

5

Soru türü

binary

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

12 saat önce güncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

10 Nis 26 21:40 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

İlgili Piyasalar

Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.

When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU?

Manifold Markets

Loans against Polymarket positions widely available before EOY 2026?

Manifold Markets

Car with no physical side mirrors widely available in the EU before 2027

Manifold Markets

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Kurallar

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, a publicly or commercially available AI system is widely recognized by relevant experts, technical benchmarks, or industry consensus as having "comparable cyber capabilities" to the Mythos system.
Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
"Comparable cyber capabilities" will be assessed based on the ability of an AI system to perform automated, end-to-end vulnerability research, exploit development, and cyber-offensive operations at a performance level similar to or exceeding those demonstrated by Mythos as of April 2026. "Widely available" means accessible to the general public, developers, or enterprise customers via API, software license, or open-source release.
In the event of ambiguity regarding the capabilities of Mythos or the successor systems, resolution will rely on consensus from credible cybersecurity researchers, AI safety organizations, or major technical publications (e.g., reports from NIST, CISA, or peer-reviewed AI/security literature).
If no clear consensus exists, the market will resolve based on the preponderance of evidence at that time.

Açık piyasalar

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

No+3.0pt86.1%
Yes-3.0pt13.9%

Toplam Hacim: ₺702 Mn
24s Hacim: ₺13,8 Mn

Anthropic IPO by which date?

December 31,+2.0pt90%
December 15,86%
November 30,-0.5pt84%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

Toplam Hacim

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2028-12.0pt41%
Before Oct 1, 2027-15.0pt40%
Before Jul 1, 2027-19.0pt29%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

Before 2028+2.0pt67%
Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%

+8 daha fazla sonuç

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%

+9 daha fazla sonuç

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

$1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
$1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
$1.5T–$1.75T17.9%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

Toplam Hacim

Sık sorulan sorular

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? için güncel oranlar nedir?: Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 90% fiyatlıyor.
Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?: Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?: Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria

Bu piyasayla ilgili veri sorunu bildir