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Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2031
Manifold MarketsRussia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028
Manifold MarketsChina attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketKurallar
Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border.
- Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes.
- Or other kinetic attacks.
- Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate.
- There has to be at least a shot fired.