Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
JeopolitikOne-OffBilimSociety & CultureManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 57%
Tahminciler
95
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis15 Oca 23 08:44 UTC1 Oca 60 08:00 UTC
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An attempt to recreate Levi's market subject to less personal judgement and bias.
- This market resolves based on the "popular science" consensus at the beginning of 2060.
- (i.e. the sort of thing reported in Wikipedia and posted on Twitter by the loudest scientists.) In the United States, or whatever culture is most similar to it if it's stopped existing by then.
- If I were to resolve this at the time of market creation, it would resolve to NO, since Wikipedia stated at that time:
- Today, the scientific consensus is that genetics does not explain differences in IQ test performance between groups, and that observed differences are environmental in origin.
- and other popular science resources tended to agree.
Açık piyasalar
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+5 daha fazla sonuç
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+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
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+2 daha fazla sonuç
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+7 daha fazla sonuç
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+20 daha fazla sonuç
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 57% fiyatlıyor.
- Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2060.
- Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: An attempt to recreate Levi's market subject to less personal judgement and bias.