Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 64.1%
Tahminciler
80
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
5 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis28 Haz 23 02:39 UTC28 Eki 30 11:33 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2?
Manifold MarketsWill @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiKurallar
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem
- The Sleeping Beauty problem is a puzzle in decision theory in which whenever an ideally rational epistemic agent is awoken from sleep, they have no memory of whether they have been awoken before.
- Upon being told that they have been woken once or twice according to the toss of a coin, once if heads and twice if tails, they are asked their degree of belief for the coin having come up heads.
- Resolves based on the consensus position of academic philosophers once a supermajority consensus is established.
- Close date extends until a consensus is reached.
- Self-locating belief and the Sleeping Beauty problem, Adam Elga (2000) - https://www.princeton.edu/~adame/papers/sleeping/sleeping.pdf
Açık piyasalar
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+23.4pt55%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺7,1 Mn
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.3pt5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mn
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺6,1 Mn
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺91,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺292,1 B
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+15.8pt64.4%
- 4.2-4.4m-16.6pt27.9%
- 4.6-4.8m-0.1pt2.9%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 64% fiyatlıyor.
- Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 28 Ekim 2030.
- Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem