Veri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
24 Eki 2026 13:31 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahmini
Not demonstrated by 31 Dec 2035 31.6%5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
12
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Oca 26 14:44 UTC31 Ara 30 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a quantum computer with at least 1500 qubits be announced before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Salvatore Pais' "UFO" patent be publicly demonstrated before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill IBM be the first to create a quantum computer with over 10,000 qubits?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
📌 Description :
- This market resolves based on the first public demonstration of a quantum computer achieving ≥1,000 logical qubits.
- A valid demonstration must include:
- • Explicit identification of logical qubits (error-corrected, not physical qubits),
- • Evidence of fault-tolerant operation (e.g. sustained error correction),
- • Public disclosure via peer-reviewed paper, preprint, or official announcement by a recognized organization (company, research lab, or government agency).
