If the US unemployment reaches 20% will it reach 80% within 2 years? (AI take-off)
EkonomiCustomYZMakro ve Ekonomi13y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 86.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis16 Oca 25 13:52 UTC1 Oca 40 22:59 UTC
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This is a question related to fast(hard) or slow(soft) AGI takeoff as well as the chance of economic disasters causing unemployment above 20%.
- The question will be resolved based on the U-3 unemployment rate.
- In the case of fast or semi-fast AI takeoff I would assume that this would cause unemployment to shoot up rapidly reaching 80% within 2 years.
- Note that if there is some economic disaster (similar to COVID) which leads to a U-3 rate above 20% before AI take-off (and the U-3 rate does not grow to 80% within 2 years) this question will resolve NO, so take that into account in your predictions.
- The question resolves YES if the U-3 unemployment rate reaches 80% within 2 years of it reaching 20% for the FIRST time.
- If the U-3 rate reaches 20% and does not cross 80% within 2 years the question will resolve NO.
