Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiBecause a human directed it to do so 62.2%20 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
12
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli25 Tem 26 09:52 UTC31 Ara 30 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Non-AI catastrophe before 2100?
Manifold MarketsAI safety activist causes AI catastrophe to slow development before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill "AI catastrophe: more like a genocide than a t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsDoes open sourcing LLMs/AI models (a la meta) increase risk of AI catastrophe?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Market is extended until an AI disaster event occurs.
- This market only pertains to the first event of its kind.
- 1,000 deaths need to be somewhat traceable to an event initiated/decided by an AI, or humans relying on an AI decisionmaking process.
- If an AI decisionmaker had decided to cut USAID, then the humans stopped doing the things associated with USAID, that would have counted, for example.
- Similarly, if an AI causes an outage which causes car crashes, that would count, even if it were indirect (i.e. all traffic lights in the world are converted to the same AI system, that system fails, and 1000 people die at intersections)
- Resolution criteria
