Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiFreezing of Frontline without official negotions 35.3%4 seçenek arasında lider
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Guncelligini yitirmis3 Eyl 23 06:05 UTC1 Oca 30 22:59 UTC
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Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on whether one side achieves most of its strategic goals, with a huge misalignment in goal achievement required for a "the named outcome" resolution.
- Russia's strategic goals:
- Making Ukraine dependent on Russia (via annexation or political influence).
- Huge territorial gains (the creator will almost certainly resolve to a Russian win if 50% of Ukraine is annexed).
- Recognition of Crimea as Russian.
- Ukraine's strategic goals: