Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini>=12h 89.2%15 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
34
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+0.4 pts
Piyasa verileri
12 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Ağu 25 23:05 UTC30 Eki 26 00:00 UTC
Trendler
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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KalshiKurallar
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for any Grok 5 model released within a month of the first Grok 5 announcement.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
- [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
- @gZsNQCnsuh (this market)