Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini3.5-4 months 24.9%10 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
76
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis16 Oca 26 20:49 UTC1 Oca 27 04:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
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KalshiKurallar
This market matches Software Engineering: METR Time Horizon Doubling Time from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.
- See other manifold questions here
- [image]Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the best-fit doubling time for METR-HRS frontier models as of December 31, 2026, computed using the methodology described in the More Info section of the survey (see here).
- If METR releases an updated METR-HRS suite that is a clear successor with comparable difficulty for questions at the same horizon length, this question will be resolved based on the updated task suite.
- Which AI systems count?