Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini9h - 10h 20.9%20 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
53
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Ara 25 00:39 UTC1 Ara 26 00:37 UTC
Trendler
0.4%
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Claude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsDeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Sonnet released by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Sonnet 4.6 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Sonnet 4.7 counts for the purpose of this market, if 4.6 is skipped.
- So does 4.75, but 5 would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 9h - 10h için 21% fiyatlıyor.
- Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Aralık 2026.
- Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Sonnet 4.6 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.