Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini9h - 10h 17%20 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
54
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Ara 25 00:39 UTC1 Ara 26 00:37 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Claude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsGrok 5 METR 50% time horizon
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Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketNext Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Sonnet 4.6 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Sonnet 4.7 counts for the purpose of this market, if 4.6 is skipped.
- So does 4.75, but 5 would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
