Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 88%
Tahminciler
19
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
37 dakika önce güncellendi
5 Oca 24 20:45 UTC1 Oca 41 05:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
Manifold MarketsDid Lyme disease come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiKurallar
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after HIV is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject.
- I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- (For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)
- If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely.
Açık piyasalar
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka-7.0pt62.4%
- Linda Noskova+7.0pt37.6%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺715,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺685 Mn
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,4 Mr
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+50.0pt87.3%
- Tie-17.0pt9.8%
- Club Brugge-32.0pt2.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺127,7 Mn
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺878,2 B
- 24s Hacim
- ₺108,8 Mn
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,4 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺106,6 Mn
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- Real Madrid vs Inter
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Waltert vs Masarova
- US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Sık sorulan sorular
- Did HIV come from a laboratory? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 88% fiyatlıyor.
- Did HIV come from a laboratory? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Did HIV come from a laboratory? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2041.
- Did HIV come from a laboratory? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.