Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
JeopolitikOne-OffYZTeknoloji7yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini6 to 24 months 36%4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
6
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+2.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis17 Ağu 26 22:54 UTC31 Ara 33 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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uses strong AGI from this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
- pause doesn't have to be continuous but cumulative pause time
- Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- It will resolve to N/A if a global pause on frontier AI training does not occur before "strong AGI" is achieved.
- If a global pause on frontier training is enacted prior to the arrival of strong AGI, this market will resolve to the option representing the cumulative duration of the pause(s) before strong AGI is officially achieved.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 6 to 24 months için 36% fiyatlıyor.
- Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2033.
- Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: uses strong AGI from this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/