Güncel topluluk tahmini
01.01.2030 80.5%9 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
7
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+11.6 pts
Piyasa verileri
10 dakika önce güncellendi
10 Eki 25 11:001 Oca 30 23:59
Trendler
0%
Kurallar
This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring
- This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
- Neuralese Reasoning Definition
- A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
- Specific Resolution Cases
- Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers
Açık piyasalar
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30+1.1pt100%
- October 31+0.9pt100%
- September 25+1.3pt99%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺63,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺30,7 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.5pt62.1%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt19.4%
- Grok+1.2pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺492 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+14.7pt19.6%
- September 8+15.9pt15.9%
- September 9+15.6pt15.9%
+27 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+5.8pt100%
- November 30,+3.7pt100%
- December 31,+3.6pt100%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+12.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+7.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-17.0pt68.2%
- ChatGPT+14.0pt23.4%
- Gemini2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺8,8 Mn
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
- AI capability growth this year?
- Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)
Sık sorulan sorular
- By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 4 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 01.01.2030 için 81% fiyatlıyor.
- By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2030.
- By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring