Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 94.6%
Tahminciler
32
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Oca 24 00:11 UTC2 Oca 27 07:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?
Manifold MarketsWill AI beat top human players at Civ6 (without cheating) by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiKurallar
From the abstract,
- We present GPQA, a challenging dataset of 448 multiple-choice questions written by domain experts in biology, physics, and chemistry.
- We ensure that the questions are high-quality and extremely difficult: experts who have or are pursuing PhDs in the corresponding domains reach 65% accuracy (74% when discounting clear mistakes the experts identified in retrospect), while highly skilled non-expert validators only reach 34% accuracy, despite spending on average over 30 minutes with unrestricted access to the web (i.e., the questions are "Google-proof").
- The questions are also difficult for state-of-the-art AI systems, with our strongest GPT-4 based baseline achieving 39% accuracy.
- This question resolves to YES if a credible paper, blog post, or document of any kind indicates that at least some AI obtained a score of greater than 74.0% on the GPQA dataset before January 1st 2027, and NO otherwise.
- The result must be credible, and I will exclude results that appear to be the result of cheating: for example, results obtained by training on the test set.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+52.7pt78.4%
- September 24-4.0pt6.9%
- September 23-2.0pt4.9%
+13 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺10,5 Mn
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney19%
- Donald Trump+1.0pt10%
+39 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺73,3 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.6pt69.6%
- ChatGPT+0.8pt14.7%
- Gemini-1.6pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺574,4 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-3.5pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺4,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,7 Mn
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.1pt98%
- Google-0.3pt1%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
+18 daha fazla sonuç
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Best AI this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 21 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 95% fiyatlıyor.
- Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2027.
- Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: From the abstract,