Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?

₺11,6 B

Evet: 66.1%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2030?

₺10,6 B

Evet: 8%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

$AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?$

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

₺6,8 B

Evet: 85%

POLYMARKET

Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?

₺5,1 B

Evet: 83.8%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

₺450,6

Before 2027: 9%

KALSHI

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

₺178,6

United States: 59%

KALSHI

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?