Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?
JeopolitikOne-OffYZHealth & Medicine10yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 95%
Tahminciler
11
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis16 Ağu 26 04:05 UTC31 Ara 36 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, for any calendar year from 2029 through 2034 (inclusive), official CDC mortality statistics show that the majority (greater than 50%) of all deaths in the United States (excluding deaths directly resulting from war or combat) are classified under "external causes of morbidity and mortality" rather than "natural causes" (diseases and clinical syndromes).
- The market will reference the final mortality data from the CDC WONDER database or the official National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR).
- Specifically, the YES threshold is met if:
- The total annual number of deaths categorized under ICD-10 Chapter XX ("External causes of morbidity and mortality" codes V01–Y89) is greater than the total annual number of deaths categorized under ICD-10 Chapters I through XVIII (codes A00–R99, which encompass infectious diseases, cancers, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory illness, diabetes, dementia, and other physical/mental diseases).
- Deaths directly from war/combat (e.g., ICD-10 codes Y36, U01.1, U02) will be subtracted from both totals before comparison.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 95% fiyatlıyor.
- Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2036.
- Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria