At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
JeopolitikOne-OffToplum ve KültürManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 86.9%
Tahminciler
22
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis13 Ara 22 10:59 UTC31 Ara 23 23:59 UTC
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Ie using all the knowledge we have at the time! So if the increased wealth starts a war that noone could have forseen, this still resolves negatilvely.
- Rolling 1000 on a 1-1000 randomiser will resolve.
