Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 68%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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5 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis6 Eyl 26 19:26 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026?
Manifold MarketsSOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Manifold MarketsWill there be any scientific discovery in 2026 that will increase penis size?
Manifold MarketsWill Massachusetts scientific R&D jobs rise YoY?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
An AI journalist recently claimed that Anthropic will release a SOTA model ahead of its IPO, with the “story built around a major scientific discovery”.
- https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/s/AoZ7CBvZcq
- [image]Resolves yes if this actually happens (the scientific discovery, regardless of whether a new model is released).
- My criteria is that this discovery (whichever field of science it applies to) must be generally considered equally or more significant than any of the Claude mathematical results Anthropic and Anthropic employees have already reported on.
- If it appears too close to tell, I will err on resolving yes.
- If multiple discoveries are reported, I will judge the most impressive one.
Açık piyasalar
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺131 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺4 Mn
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2,4 Mn
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.1pt77.5%
- 1.25T–1.5T-3.0pt8.8%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.9%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-1.0pt8%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺150,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺966,2 B
- Israel Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 68% fiyatlıyor.
- Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: An AI journalist recently claimed that Anthropic will release a SOTA model ahead of its IPO, with the “story built around a major scientific discovery”.