Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 71%
Tahminciler
26
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
12 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Ara 25 16:56 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves based on the highest value on this graph on January 1, 2027:
- https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
- Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 71% fiyatlıyor.
- AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves based on the highest value on this graph on January 1, 2027: