Veri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler
27 Eki 2026 12:55 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 81.1%
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14
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
dün güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis6 Mar 26 01:01 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsGrok 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Inspiration: https://xcancel.com/ajeya_cotra/status/2029576934523556256#m
- Will a model released this year (2026) be evaluated by METR to have a 50% time horizon of over 100 hours within 6 months of its release?
- Resolves using their most up-to-date methodology at the time (currently the 1.1 time horizon).
- I will tend to try and resolve to the spirit of the question in edge cases, rather than its letter, but I'm happy to take questions and try to provide clarifications in advance.
