Manifold Markets Markets Resolved in 2025

Manifold Markets prediction markets that settled during 2025, most recent first, with the winning outcome for each.

113 markets resolved

• Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 Ara 2025

• Will Anthony Albanese be a popular prime minister at the end of 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 Ara 2025

• BTC Puzzle 71 solved in 2025

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 Ara 2025

• Will Riley+Tundar beat Ice+Marcus?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 30 Ara 2025

• Will Spinn+Shogun beat Tundar+Meph

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 29 Ara 2025

• New Melee major winner in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 29 Ara 2025

• test

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 27 Ara 2025

• Who will win Antisemite of the Year 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Tucker Carlson · Resolved 21 Ara 2025

• 5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 15 Ara 2025

• ¿Partido ganador de la elección a la alcaldia de Comayagua en 2025?/ Winning party of Comayagua's 2025 mayoral election?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Partido Liberal · Resolved 13 Ara 2025

• ¿Partido ganador de la elección a la alcaldia de Choluteca en 2025?/ Winning party of Choluteca's 2025 mayoral election?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Partido Nacional · Resolved 13 Ara 2025

• Greenland becomes a US state by December 31st 2025

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 10 Ara 2025

• CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Dec 1, 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 9 Ara 2025

• WW3 starts before GTA 6?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 9 Ara 2025

• ARC-AGI-2 prize winning score >=50% in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 5 Ara 2025

• Who will win the Zilo vs Aimbot debate? https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1174825167197843466/1444409185088438425/i

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Zilo · Resolved 3 Ara 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of November 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Google · Resolved 1 Ara 2025

• Who will win the Aimbot - Zilo debate?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Zilo · Resolved 30 Kas 2025

• Who will win Game of the Year 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 · Resolved 25 Kas 2025

• GOOGL stock price higher than GOOG by 1/1/2026?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 24 Kas 2025

• Which team will win the 2025 NCAA D1 Women's Cross Country Championship?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: NC State · Resolved 22 Kas 2025

• Which team will win the 2025 NCAA D1 Men's Cross Country Championship?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Oklahoma State · Resolved 22 Kas 2025

• Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 19 Kas 2025

• Will Gemini 3.0 Pro outperform Gemini 2.5 Pro on the LMArena (Without Style Control)

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 18 Kas 2025

• Will Claude AI experience no partial or major outage in the next 7 days, according to its official status page?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 18 Kas 2025

• How many nights will Sarkozy spend in jail?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: 7 - 29 nights (<1 month) · Resolved 10 Kas 2025

• Will anyone get a perfect score at BMT 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 9 Kas 2025

• Will Devin win OHMIO?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 9 Kas 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of October 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Google · Resolved 3 Kas 2025

• Trump approval rating 43.1% or higher on November 1st?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 Kas 2025

• An attempt to fix the "Will this close above 50%" market. (READ DESCRIPTION)

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 Kas 2025

• ¿Quien va a ganar la mesa de hoy?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Chamz · Resolved 30 Eki 2025

• Will Coco venture out from under the furniture

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 21 Eki 2025

• Lucas farà la tripletta pre partenza?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 16 Eki 2025

• X.AI releases a Grok-powered code editor before October 16, 2025

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 15 Eki 2025

• Tesla reports >465,800 vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 12 Eki 2025

• David moves back to the Bay by October?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 5 Eki 2025

• DingDingDing Casino announces a plan to resume operations by June 30, 2025

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 Eki 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of September 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Google · Resolved 1 Eki 2025

• [MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 Eki 2025

• Will Smiling Friends be renewed for a 4th season by Adult Swim by the end of 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 29 Eyl 2025

• Boca win the libertadores 2026?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 26 Eyl 2025

• Will Substack launch an ad network in 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 18 Eyl 2025

• Will Nippon Steel’s deal to acquire U.S. Steel gain all required regulatory approvals?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 16 Eyl 2025

• Kid heaves his lunch this week?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 14 Eyl 2025

• Will macOS 16 drop support for intel based Mac’s?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 10 Eyl 2025

• Will I fully clean my room before next Monday

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 9 Eyl 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of August 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Google · Resolved 1 Eyl 2025

• Which team will win the 2025 LIV Golf Team Championship?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Legion XIII · Resolved 24 Ağu 2025

• Will Putin visit the USA in 2025

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 16 Ağu 2025

• Will I get a job in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 8 Ağu 2025

• Will Trump broadly maintain the January 2025 AI diffusion export controls?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 Ağu 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of July 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Google · Resolved 1 Ağu 2025

• [40k liquidity] 2025 Tour de France Winner?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Tadej Pogacar · Resolved 27 Tem 2025

• Will PornHub in the UK require age verification by 25th July 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 25 Tem 2025

• Gwern reveals the true meaning of Evangelion by December 31, 2025

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 24 Tem 2025

• Kimi K2 rank 5 or better on LMArena?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 17 Tem 2025

• Will 2 or more US banks fail in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 16 Tem 2025

• Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 16 Tem 2025

• GOLD (XAU/USD) closes above $3,330 this week?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 12 Tem 2025

• Sanji dies in a fight?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 9 Tem 2025

• In what month of year 2025 perl 5.42.0 will be released

  Manifold Markets · Winner: 07 · Resolved 4 Tem 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of June 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Google · Resolved 1 Tem 2025

• Will PornHub in the UK require age verification by July 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 Tem 2025

• Does this pumpkin drink vodka?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 30 Haz 2025

• When will Elon Musk no longer play a significant role in the Trump Administration?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: 2025 · Resolved 30 Haz 2025

• Will A.I. Have Significantly More Common Sense by end of 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 29 Haz 2025

• Are there more locks than keys in the world?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 27 Haz 2025

• Will I make both USApHO and the FIDE IM title before the summer of 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 26 Haz 2025

• Will I learn to orient using cardinal directions?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 19 Haz 2025

• Will OpenAI release o3 pro mode this month?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 12 Haz 2025

• During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: June · Resolved 9 Haz 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of May 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Google · Resolved 1 Haz 2025

• Which actor will play the Sixteenth Doctor Who?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Billie Piper · Resolved 1 Haz 2025

• Are there more chairs than tables?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 20 May 2025

• Will I stick to my finals study routine from May 3 to May 11?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 9 May 2025

• Who won HMIC 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: jatloe · Resolved 4 May 2025

• Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Mark Carney · Resolved 4 May 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of April 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Google · Resolved 1 May 2025

• Who will win the ACF Nationals Collegiate Quizbowl Championship 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Stanford · Resolved 20 Nis 2025

• Will Mark Carney defeat Pierre Poilievre in the upcoming debates [based on odds change on Polymarket]?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 18 Nis 2025

• When will Ksenia Karelina get out of prison?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: 2025 · Resolved 10 Nis 2025

• Which company has best AI model end of March 2025? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Google · Resolved 1 Nis 2025

• will i win indiana mathcounts state comp

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 23 Mar 2025

• will proof team top 11 at mathcounts state

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 22 Mar 2025

• Will there be a new (and smart) anonymous model on lmarena on February 21st?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 22 Şub 2025

• On which of these three dating sites will I find true love*?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Hinge · Resolved 20 Şub 2025

• Who will win melee singles at GENESIS X2?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Hungrybox 🍽️ · Resolved 17 Şub 2025

• deleted

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 9 Şub 2025

• How many of Trump’s nominees to head government agencies will be publicly accused of sex crimes by Inauguration Day?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: 3 · Resolved 20 Oca 2025

• Will 1 or more US banks fail in 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 19 Oca 2025

• La NASA confirmera t’elle la découverte extraterrestre avant 2025 ?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 10 Oca 2025

• By 2025 will I firmly believe that one of the 2023 balloon shootdowns was staged by the Biden administration for PR purposes?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 4 Oca 2025

• Gaat Frans Timmermans in 2024 de tweede kamer verlaten?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 3 Oca 2025

• Will McDonald's open a location in Yerevan, Armenia in 2024?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 3 Oca 2025

• Will Jstlk become an anti-fan in 2024

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 3 Oca 2025

• On balance, has bitcoin resulted in more bad than good in the world?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 Oca 2025

• Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

  Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 Oca 2025