Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024?
One-OffManifold MarketsKapalıKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreBu piyasa sonuçlandı: No (89.5%)
Sonuçlandı: 1 Oca 2025 16:46
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15 Eki 2026 13:55 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Olasılık Zaman Çizelgesi
Yes10.5%
No89.5%
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Will a donor who is not currently widely known give ≥$50 million to longtermist or existential risk causes or organizations before the end of 2024, and be expected to continue giving ≥$50 million per year?
- I will only count donations or grants, not impact investments.
- I will count something as a longtermist if it seems like the kind of thing the Long-Term Future Fund or Open Phil's longtermist budget might plausibly fund.
- I will resolve this question at my discretion in whichever way seems most correct to me.
- I may trade in this market, but promise to carefully make sure not to let my position affect the way I resolve this market.