Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
One-OffPolíticaEleiçãoChessUS PoliticsEsportes1m
PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
National + ACT + NZF 46.6%+1.5ptLíder entre 18 opçõesAjustado pela margem: as cotações brutas somavam mais de 100% e foram normalizadas.
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Liquidez
170,2 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
1.7 pt
Spread apertadoComentários
8
Variação 7d
-1.6 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 minutos
4/05/26, 20:12 UTC7/11/26, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
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0%
0%
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A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
- This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
- A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister.
- Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
- The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF).
- All other parties will not be considered.