PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaProbabilidade implícita atualDecember 31 68%Líder entre 17 opções
Qualidade do mercado
100 / 100
Alta qualidadeVolume 24h
4,5 M €
Liquidez
2,5 M €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venda
3.9% / 4.0%
Spread
2.6%
Spread apertadoVariação 7d
-9.6%
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 minutos
8/04/26, 16:2331/12/26, 0:00
Tendências
Resultado escolhido
December 3168%
Mercados Relacionados
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
1,3 M €July 31: 56%POLYMARKET
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Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
866,5 mil €June 30: 31%POLYMARKET
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Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
645,3 mil €Sim: 2%POLYMARKET
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Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
4,6 mil €Sim: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)
1,9 mil €3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm): 100%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US-Iran nuclear deal?
766,5 €Before July: 8%
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran.
- Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
- A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.