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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Geopolítica
  3. How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)
Manifold Markets

How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

One-OffGeopolíticaMiddle East6m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm) 100%
Líder entre 13 opções
Previsores

92

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 2 minutos

6/05/26, 22:3731/12/26, 23:37

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade
Manifold Markets
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm)
100%

Resultado escolhido

7 weeks+ (June 9th, 1pm)99%

Regras

[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst.

Manifold Markets
  • If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.
  • Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.

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Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$62,867.10+2.52%EthereumETH$1,658.07+1.88%SolanaSOL$65.28+1.86%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.73%XRPXRP$1.12+0.74%BNBBNB$596.82+1.84%

Notícias Relacionadas

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Regras

[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst.

Manifold Markets
  • If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.
  • Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.
  • Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.